Published in ‘The Tribune’ on Nov 11 2015

DIWALI is one festival when every soldier longs to be at home. The sight of a jawan with rum bottles in his backpack is enough to raise the spirits of the whole community. Ironically, barring few lucky ones, most have to be content with celebrations in the units only. When deployed in the operational areas, often on Diwali,  there are real fireworks.Almost a decade back, on one occasion, I happened to be chasing the clock to make it home for Diwali.  Landing at the Chandigarh airport in the afternoon, I headed for the Sector 43 bus stand as the Volvo service had just been introduced. Seeing the long queue, I reluctantly approached the bus conductor, who smilingly assured me that I will be taken on board.He was gracious to allot me the first seat in the head row reserved for VIPs. On settling in, I dug into Paulo Coelho’s The Alchemist. As the bus was about to start, an elderly gentleman came in and occupied the seat next to mine. He appeared to be in his late seventies and was not in good health. A young person, who had come to see him off, left hurriedly bidding a tearful goodbye. Soon we were cruising on the highway. Almost an hour later, the driver made a brief halt in the wilderness on the request of the passenger seated beside me. He slowly got down, perhaps to ease himself and struggled back to his seat. As we drove past a restaurant, those of us who were to get down at Jalandhar began to gather our belongings. While I was looking out the window, the reflection of the co-passenger who was calling up someone on his mobile caught my attention. Though he was talking in whisper, I could hear him faintly. He was perhaps headed for Amritsar. When the bus halted at the Jalandhar bypass, while alighting, I wished him happy Diwali. Nodding silently, with a penetrating gaze, he acknowledged my greetings.My wife and daughter, who had come to pick me up, found me rather upbeat, given the fact that only a while earlier, I had insisted on a low-key celebration due to some personal reason. As we drove home, I stopped to pick up a basket of goodies and fancy candles. I felt the same excitement as I did in my childhood days. I narrated to my family members the phone conversation of the fellow passenger. Suffering from terminal illness, he had defied predictions of the medical fraternity, through his indomitable spirit. He wanted a memorable celebration; make most of the extended lease.  This was my moment of reckoning: flashbacks of critical times when life hung by a slender thread; the flame could have extinguished long back. How did one miss out on the latent blessings? On Diwali, the memories of the brief tryst with the noble soul invariably come alive, marked with deep resonance!

On 50th anniversary of the 1965 war, there is little for the martyrs’ families to celebrate. War takes away the best, the bravest of brave and most honourable in the prime of youth. Regrettably, their supreme sacrifices gradually fade away in public memory

OUR alma mater — Sainik School, Amaravathinagar, tucked away in the foothills of Nilgiris — celebrated its golden jubilee in 2012, with military pomp and pageantry. I was amongst the first batch to join the school in August, 1962. Barely had we settled down that during the morning assembly, Principal Col Sahni announced that China had launched a surprise attack on India. As sixth graders, we were too young to understand the complexities of such issues. Soon, however, it was clear that our Army had suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Chinese. As future flag-bearers of the armed forces, this episode left a deep impression on our young minds.Three years later, as we got off with the autumn term, news started trickling in that it was now Pakistan which was on to mischief. By now in the ninth grade, we were well informed, with access to national dailies, BBC broadcasts and regular updates in the school. From the battle accounts and summaries, it was evident that Indian armed forces had gained an upper hand over the opponent right in the initial stages of the conflict. Our morale was sky high.One fateful day, we were shaken by sad news. Ranjit Singh Mann, who was my classmate and shared the same dorm, was informed that his dad, serving in 5 Guards, was reported “missing in action” in the Khem Karan sector, scene of the fierce tank battle. Ranjit was in a state of shock. We all tried to console and convince him not to fear the worst. While the war ended and Prisoners of War were exchanged, there was no news of Ranjit’s father.Over a period of time, Ranjit’s behaviour underwent a drastic change. He became very quiet and frequently suffered from insomnia. His health also deteriorated, impacting the grades. While most of us cleared the National Defence Academy entrance examination, Ranjit failed to make the cut.Sometime later, Ranjit’s dad was declared “killed in action”. It was obvious that Ranjit could not reconcile to his father’s tragic loss. His dream of getting commission in the Army lay shattered. As the eldest of siblings, he also had to shoulder family obligations. The monthly pension his widowed mother received was a mere Rs 96; too meager to make both ends meet. So, unable to carry on with higher studies due to economic constraints, Ranjit dropped out of college and joined the Army as a Havildar. He was now able to continue with studies as also lend support to his family. Once financially stable, he quit and joined the banking service and recently retired as Chief Manager.The other day I happened to touch base with him. Even half a century later, Ranjit and his family still bear deep scars of the tragic loss. While India commemorates the 50th anniversary of the 1965 war, for the martyrs’ families there is little to celebrate.Having seen the ugly side of war, on the battlefield there are “no victors, no vanquished”; only losers. Victory is generally defined by the opposing side in terms of proportionate losses, who suffered less or more. The irony of war is that it takes away the best, bravest of the brave and most honourable in the prime of youth. Regrettably, their supreme sacrifices gradually fade away in public memory. Every time I meet with the near and dear ones of those comrades who went down while accomplishing the assigned missions, their moist eyes stoically defy the adage: “time is a great healer”. Fifty years on, for Ranjit and his kin, the intensity of trauma only stands compounded!

The writer is former Assistant Chief Integrated Defence Staff

THE National Defence College (NDC) course is a defining experience for those who participate in this 11-month programme in Delhi. What makes it  unique is the conducive environment, varied exposure and enormous peer group learning. Over half course members are Brigadiers and equivalents, drawn from the three services, nominated through a tough selection process. Joint Secretary-level officers from the civil services constitute around 15 per cent of the course strength, with military officers from friendly foreign countries making up the rest. Around 80 of us attended the NDC 43 in 2003.As the course draws to an end, there are number of courtesy calls and ‘at homes’. The most significant of these is the call on the President at Rashtrapati Bhavan. There was added excitement, given the extraordinary credentials of then President APJ Abdul Kalam — a visionary, eminent scientist and scholar; above all, an epitome of humanity. A detailed briefing was organised by the Secretary NDC, covering the minutest protocol details, especially the lineup for the group photograph. One foreign officer who was insistent on taking both his wives for the function was firmly directed to drop one, keeping in view the propriety of the occasion. He was also politely apprised about the marital status of the Supreme Commander. We arrived at Rashtrapati Bhavan and waited to be ushered in. The group photograph was the first event. We took our places. The President made a ceremonial entry and posed for the photograph. After introduction to the faculty members, informal interaction followed. The President was soon surrounded by the course members and their spouses. Some of us stood in a corner, awaiting our turn. Suddenly we saw him peeling away and heading towards us. Moving closer, he queried inquisitively: “Are you all single like me?” He appeared amused at our spontaneous response; all claiming to be happily married. Stepping towards me, he asked: “What is the role of a soldier?” Momentarily, I felt stumped. Seeing me perplexed, he repeated the question. This gave me the time to respond. I replied: “Sir, a soldier’s prime duty is to defend the motherland at all cost and be a role model for society.”  From the President’s smiling nod, it was obvious that I had got it right. He explained that while every military safeguards its nation, how many can claim to be model citizens! The President went on to amplify: “It is here that an Indian soldier can be immensely proud. India as a nation reveres its soldiers, looks upon them as role models, persons of unblemished character and custodians of the highest values. Our nation goes into shock when there is abrasion on the part of a soldier. All military persons, whether in or out of uniform, must live up to this trust. They should be stakeholders in building a strong nation, so that all Indians can realise their aspirations.”The President was gracious to overshoot the stipulated 60-minute interaction. Just as he was departing, out of sheer magnanimity, he asked if anyone had a question. A lady jumped the protocol: “President Sir, what is your dream?” He paused and with a broad smile responded: “To be a billionaire.” There was silence, which soon turned into a thunderous applause when he whispered, “by making each one of my billion countrymen smile.”

Published in The Tribune on 3 Aug 2015

These days, I am a regular commuter aboard the Shatabdi Express, as I travel frequently from Delhi to Jalandhar or Chandigarh. For the twin destinations, it is the evening Shatabdis that suit me. Both trains start from Platform 1 of New Delhi railway station. As I plan my travel well in advance, I manage generally to get a seat in the executive class.

The Jalandhar-bound Shatabdi departs at 4.30 pm. By four, the platform is humming with activity. Most of the passengers in the train’s executive class are either NRIs or holidaymakers, besides a handful of devotees headed for Amritsar or Beas. As the train lines up on the platform, there is a sudden clamour for the compartment, everyone vying for prime space on the overhead luggage racks. There is hectic activity to swap seats, as families and friends want to sit together. Travelling by myself mostly, it is I who get displaced from my designated seat invariably at least once, sometimes even twice.

By the time the train starts, everyone is settled and refreshments have arrived. Children convert the passage into a mini amusement park quickly and make merry to the delight of their parents. Mobilephone ringtones and conversations add to the vibrant atmosphere. Usually, my co-passenger is an NRI. We break the ice over a cup of tea. By soup time, we are on the first-name basis. Being footloose and now professor of international relations, I can have interesting chat with anyone even from Dakar or Reykjavik. Punjabi hospitality is at its best by the time dinner is served, and I have a standing invite from my co-passenger to his “Newfoundland”.

As Jalandhar approaches, come loud goodbyes and bear hugs. The platform wears a festive look, as restless crowds armed with bouquets are eager to welcome their near and dear ones from distant lands.

The Chandigarh Shatabdi departs at 5.15pm. To board it, I avoid the ordeal of entering from Paharganj, instead going via the always-open VIP gate. The platform where the executive coaches are parked appears barren, as if the train has been cancelled. The VIPs escorted by their entourage appear barely a few minutes before the departure time.

Everyone makes to the designated seat without any commotion. Their security personnel, after ushering the dignitary, hang around the alley to keep a tight vigil. The atmosphere in the coach is rather officious. The service staff makes a welcome gesture by handing each passenger a rose bud. Most of the top officials enjoy the luxury of having an unoccupied adjacent seat. My co-passenger generally is a mid-rung official. Benign gestures draw a cold response. Sensing impersonal body language, I open my laptop to punch in an article. Many of the mid-section pieces are courtesy the Kalka Shatabdi.

As the train chugs into the outskirts of Chandigarh, the personal staffs of the VIPs go hyperactive to lead their bosses out. On the platform, a large entourage is waiting to receive the dignitaries. Outside, in the VIP car park, there are fleets of red- and blue-beacon vehicles with loud sirens. The scene resembles a disaster-relief operation.

I make my way out slowly, a little amused, pondering why totally different experiences aboard the two trains with a common name?

Published in Hindustan Times on  9 july 2015

HYDRO HEGEMONY IS CHINA’S NEW GAMEPLAN

 Major-Gen GG Dwivedi (retd)

Chinese dams in Tibet have serious strategic and socio-economic implications for India. The issue needs to be addressed holistically and India should insist on transparency and raise its concerns forcefully

  THE Chinese intention to build a series of dams over the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) in Tibet is a matter of concern for India, and has rightly drawn reactions from various quarters. At Zangmu, a 510 MW dam is already under construction and due for completion by 2014. According to recent reports, three more dams have been approved for construction. Two of these dams, Dagu (640 MW) and Jiexu (capacity unconfirmed) are 18 km and 11 km upstream of Zangmu, respectively. The third one at Jiacha (320 MW), is downstream. These projects are likely to be completed by 2015.

Earlier, the Chinese had persistently denied undertaking any dam construction activity on the

Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) in Tibet is a matter of concern for India, and has rightly drawn reactions from various quarters. At Zangmu, a 510 MW dam is already under construction and due for completion by 2014. According to recent reports, three more dams have been approved for construction. Two of these dams, Dagu (640 MW) and Jiexu (capacity unconfirmed) are 18 km and 11 km upstream of Zangmu, respectively. The third one at Jiacha (320 MW), is downstream. These projects are likely to be completed by 2015.

Earlier, the Chinese had persistently denied undertaking any dam construction activity on the Brahmaputra. It was only in April 2010 that Yang Jiechi, Chinese Foreign Minister, officially acknowledged the construction of Zangmu dam. Beijing gave an assurance that being a “run of the river” project, it will not adversely impact the flow downstream. In 2005, there was the Pareechu episode, which had resulted in flash floods in the Sutlej, causing extensive damage. The Chinese had refused an Indian proposal for a joint inspection. In view of Beijing’s system of closed-door functioning, lack of transparency and the prevailing state of trust deficit between the two neighbours, the issue merits a pragmatic review. Possible implications for India need detailed examination both from the scientific and strategic dimensions, should the Chinese go ahead with their ambitious plans.

Three Gorges Dam in China. China is the world’s biggest consumer of energy and plans to double its installed capacity of 213,000 MW to 430,000 MW in a decade

The genesis

The Tibetan plateau has enormous strategic importance given its vast natural unexploited reserves. Due to its rich water resources, it has come to be known as the water tank of Asia. Ten to 20 per cent of the area is covered by glacial ice and 30-40 per cent of the region gets seasonal snow fall. This translates into 100,000 sq km of area covered by glaciers and 12,000 cubic km of fresh water. Its glaciers feed a number of river systems in South and South East Asia. The perennial run of rivers results in stable flow of water to different regions, which is augmented by the monsoon.

Major Chinese rivers which originate from Tibet are Yangtze, the longest river which carries half of the total national water and Huang He (Yellow River). Indus, Brahmaputra and Sutlej are the Indian rivers with Tibet plateau as the origin. Tibet is also home to Salween and Mekong Rivers which traverse through Indo-China peninsula.

The Chinese water resources are distributed unevenly. The upper parts of China, north of the Yangtze, are water deficient. Comparatively better developed northern region with 42 per cent population, it has only 14 per cent of the available fresh water. On the other hand, the agrarian south, lesser industrialized with 58 per cent population, has 86 per cent share. Over the years, the Chinese water consumption pattern has undergone a significant change. Whereas agricultural consumption has shown a downward trend, industrial and domestic usage has gone up substantially.

China’s threat perception

In the Chinese threat perception calculus, stability tops the list, implying continued hold of the Communist Party. To ensure this, the country has to sustain a fast pace of economic progress. Water, food and energy security are non-negotiable in the Chinese security matrix.

In 2010, China emerged as the biggest consumer of energy, with an installed capacity of 213,000 MW. It aims to double its current capacity to 430,000 MW in a decade. This implies adding one project of the size of the Three Gorges Dam every year. At the same time, it also plans to lift the proportion of non-fossil fuel usage in the energy sector to 15 per cent by 2020. Officials of the Chinese Society of Hydropower state that in view of the rising demand for energy and pressure to reduce carbon emissions, China has to tap all available sources. A study concluded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences reveals that hydroelectric power generation capacity of the Tsang Po River basin is 114,000 MW; 79,000 MW from the main stem alone.

The Chinese have adopted a multi-pronged approach to meet the challenge of water and energy shortage. The Three Gorges project, the biggest of its kind on the Yangtze River, became operational in 2008. Besides generating 18,000 MW of electricity, the project has enabled transferring water to the northern region, contributed towards flood control and improved the inland water transport system.

Yet another ambitious project on the anvil is the South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). It entails augmenting the capacity of the Huang He and transfer of water to the deficit northern region. The project envisages diverting the waters of the Yangtze along three axial routes. The Eastern route diversion is aligned with the existing Grand Canal. It is designed to draw 14.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) annually from the Yangtze to the eastern plains. The central route project envisages diversion of 13 bcm from Nanjing River to Beijing-Tianjin region. In the western route diversion, three tributaries of the Yangtze, namely Jinsha, Yalong and Dadu will be tapped to divert 17 bcm of water through an elaborate tunnel network. These projects being confined to the Chinese mainland do not have external ramifications as such.

One project that will be of serious concern to India is the Great Western Route Water Transfer Project (GWRWTP). The proposed project is extension of the western route diversion scheme. It entails construction of a mega dam at Namcha Barwa. Here, the Tsang Po River makes a steep loop to form a U-bend before entering India. Initially the project is only for power generation with a proposed capacity of 38,000 MW. Subsequently, plans are to divert water to the tune of 200 bcm annually to irrigate the deserts of Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. This mammoth project could take decades to become operational. It will entail major tunneling effort to the tune of 56 km, with longest tunnel envisaged to be 26 km. The Chinese possess proven expertise in creating engineering marvels. In case this project is implemented, it will significantly impact the water flow in the Brahmaputra River.

The Chinese are in the process of constructing 13 dams on the Salween River (Nu) in Tibet and Yunnan. Six mega dam projects on Mekong, including the 4,200 MW at Xiaowan and 5,850 MW at Nuozhadu, also stand approved. These two rivers are the lifelines of lower riparian states.

Implications

India needs to address the issue holistically, in the long-term perspective. Given Beijing’s shrouded system of functioning and unilateralism, coupled with a hegemonic approach, our options should be based on the realistic assessment. Factoring China’s strategic imperatives and grand designs, the major implications for India could be:

Dams on the Tsang Po, even if they are run of the river, gives China a handle on the tap — capability to control the flow of water of the Brahmaputra. As evident from the past incidences, even an accidental or emergent outflow from these dams could prove disastrous for India.

In case China goes ahead with the option of diverting waters of the Tsang Po, as brought out above, the resultant reduced flow in the Brahmaputra will have multiple impact. This could be strategic, economic, commercial and ecological, in varying degrees or combinations.

The 891-km stretch of Brahmaputra from Sadiya to Dhubri near the Indo-Bangladesh border, National Waterway-2, has vast potential to augment the current inadequate transportation infrastructural in the region. The Inland Waterway Authority of India is responsible for development of the waterway for navigation. A minimal depth of 1.5m needs to be maintained for Sadia-Dibrugarh stretch and 2m beyond. There are 11 floating terminals for handling cargo and passengers. Any interference with the water flow will adversely affect the operational status of this vital line of communication.

India’s future plans to tap the hydro power potential of the Brahmaputra and the proposed river linking project will get stalled. This will impede the overall development, both at the regional and national level.

China’s capability to exercise control over the water of the Brahmaputra can result in psycho-social influence over the local population fueling discontentment. Besides, it will hurt India’s strategic engagement process with the south east Asian region.

As China does not believe in the concept of water sharing, there is no treaty between the two countries on the subject. Hence, India has to take recourse to crafty diplomacy, including building up international pressure to dissuade China from going ahead with the planned projects. India must insist on transparency on the issue and raise its concerns forcefully. Instead of following the policy of appeasement, we must insist on having constitutional mechanisms in place. There is an urgent need to constitute a body of experts from different fields to understand and address this vital issue in totality.

While China being an upper riparian state it enjoys “restricted territorial sovereignty” as per the international law, it also has the onus to protect the interest of the other nations. Our approach should be to build consensus amongst the affected nations. Support of Bangladesh, besides Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos should be garnered to confront China on the issue.

Conclusion

Damming the Tsang Po in Tibet is one more addition to the list of contentious issues between India and China. While it may not be prudent to raise an alarm and press the panic button yet, its ramifications cannot be brushed aside. The issue merits a holistic review in the realm of emerging geo-political realities.

Initial vehement denials and later justifications are typical of the Chinese unilateralism. The issue of water and energy must be seen in the larger context of China’s global aspirations. While keeping a close watch, it is time to evolve a long term strategy to effectively respond to the new challenges.

India’s approach should be both bilateral and multilateral to persuade China to give up the precarious approach of hydro hegemony. Persistent efforts should be made to evolve a legal framework to address the water sharing mechanism. Political will along with astute diplomacy are needed to checkmate China’s grand designs.

The writer has commanded a Division in the East and served as the Defence Attaché in China

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20130301/edit.htm

Posted by Strategic Studies at 12:09

Maj Gen G G Dwivedi (retd)

Two years ago it was early November that I happened to be in Boston for academic engagements. Aware that the USA observes very few holidays, I was a bit surprised that November 12, Monday, was a national holiday, on account of the Veterans Day.
The day was marked by public rallies, parades and church services. At many places the American flag flew at half mast. Rich tributes were paid to the veterans for their sacrifices in keeping America secure and safe. To quote President Obama “So long as I am the Commander-in-Chief, we will sustain the strongest military the world has ever known. When you take off the uniform, we will serve you as well you have served us because no one who fights for the country should have to fight for a job or roof over their head or the care they need when they come home”. The spirit of pride amongst the war veterans was palpable from the reverence and gratitude extended by the public for the men who once adorned the uniform.
A few days later, I had the privilege to be invited for lunch at the Harvard Faculty Club by Major Jean, a World War II veteran. After early retirement, he taught mathematics at Harvard University for over four decades. It was over lunch that I got a historical perspective on the Veterans Day. It started as a tradition to mark the Armistice Agreement between the Allies and Germany ending World War I, which came into effect in 1918, on November 11 at 11th hour. A year later, to commemorate the Armistice Day, President Woodrow Wilson proclaimed that the day should be a solemn occasion to express gratitude for the victory; to all those who laid down their lives in service of the nation. There were public gatherings, parades and a brief suspension of business activities at 11 am.
 In 1926 the US Congress declared that Armistice Anniversary should be commemorated with prayers and thanksgiving. In 1938, November 11 was made an official holiday and the same was ratified again in 1978. In case November 11 happens to be a Sunday, then the next Monday was to be observed as a holiday. Of the 44 US Presidents, 31 had a military background  — 12 held the rank of General.   
 The Indian Army earned rich laurels for its professionalism and valour, especially during the two World Wars. Post Independence, the Indian Armed Forces have acquitted themselves with distinction in safeguarding the nation’s sovereignty, both against external and internal threats. They are at the fore front during disasters. Their credentials in upholding the nation’s secular character and democratic values are impeccable. Whereas society is proud of its military, yet it has fallen short in according the honour the veteran soldiers deserve.    
 While the yearly calendar is cluttered with days of reckoning, there is no occasion when the nation remembers its veterans. Even in the armed forces, there are numerous days which are commemorated in the true regimental spirit but none is dedicated exclusively to the veterans.
December 16 is observed by the three Services as ‘Vijay Divas’ (Victory Day) to mark the historic victory in the 1971 Bangladesh war. It will be befitting if this day could be commemorated as the ‘Veterans Day’ by the countrymen; an occasion when the nation could solemnly salute its soldiers for repeatedly taking the call to defend the motherland. After all, what a soldier seeks in return for the supreme sacrifice is pretty little: honour, dignity and shared understanding.

 the article was published in The Tribune on 17th Dec. 2014